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07/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Golf's most historic championship heads to its most historic venue for the 139th playing of the British Open Championship.
The championship is celebrating its 150th anniversary -- it was not held 11 times due to World Wars I and II -- at the course where it has been played the most times.
The Old Course at St. Andrews, known as the "Home of Golf," will host the Open for the 27th time. The list of winners on the Old Course includes golf legends such as Bobby Jones, Sam Snead, Peter Thompson, Tony Lema, Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods.
Woods, who has won the last two Opens at St. Andrews, is one of four people who have won twice at the Old Course.
Over the last eight Open Championships on the Old Course, John Daly was the least accomplished winner and that is saying something since it was Daly's fourth win overall and second major championship title.
In the last two Opens at St. Andrews, Woods put on a show. He cruised to a five-stroke win over Colin Montgomerie in 2005 and fired four rounds in the 60s to beat Ernie Els and Thomas Bjorn by eight shots in 2000.
In his 2000 victory, Woods did not hit a single bunker and was just the third winner to post all four rounds in the 60s.
In 2005, the British Open said goodbye to three-time champion Jack Nicklaus. Like Woods, Nicklaus earned two of his three Open Championship titles on the Old Course.
Last year, Tom Watson made a serious charge while trying to win a record-tying sixth Open Championship title. The 59-year-old fell just short of becoming the oldest major champion in golf history.
Watson led by a stroke heading to the final hole after making birdie on the 17th at Turnberry. After he knocked his second shot over the 18th green, Watson pitched his third to eight feet. He started walking just after hitting the putt and the ball slid by the hole on the right.
He tapped in for bogey, then headed to a playoff with Stewart Cink. In the four-hole playoff, Cink easily bested Watson for his first major championship victory.
Cink needed just 14 strokes, while Watson struggled with 20 shots. Cink went par-par-birdie-birdie to deny Watson from being the third player to win the Open Championship in three different decades.
The 36-year-old Cink did not own a share of the lead at any point during the tournament until his birdie on the 72nd hole of regulation found the bottom of the cup. Watson, playing three groups behind Cink, would have won the title if not for his bogey at the last.
Watson's incredible run was the second straight year someone over 50 years of age was in contention.
In 2008, 53-year-old Greg Norman held the third-round lead and was still atop the leaderboard standing on the 10th tee in the final round. The Australian stumbled to four bogeys on the back nine en route to a seven-over 77. He slid into a share of third at plus-nine.
Norman's crash enabled Padraig Harrington to win the Open Championship for the second straight year. His first win in 2007 came in a playoff over Sergio Garcia. Harrington defeated the Spaniard by a single stroke (15-16) for the first of his three major championship titles.
Phil Mickelson enters the week at St. Andrews coming off two top-five finishes. Earlier in the season, Mickelson closed with back-to-back 67s to beat Lee Westwood by three strokes at the Masters. The victory was Mickelson's third at Augusta and fourth in a major championship.
Mickelson missed last year's Open to be with his wife, Amy, and his mother, who were both in the early stages of cancer treatment.
He has struggled at the British Open in the past with his best finish coming in 2004. Mickelson missed the playoff that year by a single stroke. His next best finish was at St. Andrews in 2000, when he tied for 11th.
Heading into the 139th Open Championship, two of the favorites are Steve Stricker and Justin Rose.
Stricker is coming off a repeat victory at the John Deere Classic, where several records fell throughout the week. Stricker opened with a 60, but trailed Paul Goydos, who fired a 59 on Thursday.
The 43-year-old Stricker set the 54-hole record with his total of 188 and ended up beating Goydos by two. Goydos did earn the final spot in the field at St. Andrews thanks to his second-place finish.
Rose is coming off two wins in his last three starts. He won the Memorial the first weekend in June for his first PGA Tour title, but still failed to qualify for the U.S. Open.
The Englishman said he considered the AT&T National his U.S. Open and held on for a one-stroke win over a hard-charging Ryan Moore.
Rose and Moore both earned spots in the British Open field thanks to those finishes.
The 29-year-old Rose burst onto the golf scene as a teenager at the 1998 British Open, where he holed out for eagle on the final hole to jump into a share of fourth place. Rose will be competing in his ninth Open championship, and first at St. Andrews.
He will look to avoid the fate of Westwood at the U.S. Open. Westwood entered the U.S. Open having finished second at the Masters and earned his second PGA Tour title the week before Pebble Beach at the St. Jude Classic.
Westwood never got anything going at the U.S. Open and finished tied for 16th at plus-eight. Northern Ireland's Graeme McDowell closed with a three-over 74, but it was enough for a one-stroke win at the U.S. Open.
McDowell, a six-time winner on the European Tour, claimed his first major championship title as well as his first win on the PGA Tour at Pebble. He is coming off a tie for 21st at the Scottish Open, which was his first start since the U.S. Open.
Heading into St. Andrews, it would be tough to call Woods one of the favorites because of his underwhelming play so far this season. However, he has dominated this course in the past.
Will this be the week Westwood or Ian Poulter breaks through for his first major? Can Els win his fourth major championship title? Or will Miguel Angel Jimenez turn his solid play into his third victory of the season and first major title?
There are plenty of questions entering the Open Championship. It remains to be seen who has the right answers on the Old Course at St. Andrews.
<< NL Rookie Pitcher Gets All-Star Snub
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For those of you still wrapped up in Strasburg-
mania, I have to regretfully inform you that he's not the pitcher referred to
in the above headline. As impressive as the Nationals' rookie has been, and as
much as
<< Mural of LeBron James removed in Cleveland
CLEVELAND (AP) -LeBron James has left the building.Workers have removed a gigantic Nike banner featuring James, a sign that hung on the side of a downtown building for years and served as a background for the Cleveland Cavaliers' success during the
<< Woods to play with Rose in first two rounds of British Open
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods and Justin Rose, the
world's top-ranked player and one of the hottest players in golf,
respectively, will be paired together for the first two rounds of the 2010
British
<< Report: Suns close to acquiring Turkoglu, Childress
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Suns are reportedly close to
replacing Amare Stoudemire with a combination of Hedo Turkoglu and Josh
Childress, according to The Arizona Republic.
The report states that the Suns wo
National League mid-term grades >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the National League, those preseason
predictions are little more than a distant memory. A pair of surprising teams
have emerged -- the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres -- at the top of the
class, while
Blackhawks re-sign assistant coach Haviland; add Kitchen to staff >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blackhawks on Monday re-signed assistant
coach Mike Haviland and named Mike Kitchen an assistant coach.
"Adding Mike Kitchen and bringing back Mike Haviland bolster what is already a
tremendous coaching
Seven finalists return to Walter Payton Award Watch List >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The race for the 2010 Walter Payton Award,
sponsored by Fathead.com, kicked off Monday with The Sportsbook Betting Lines's
announcement that seven finalists from last season are part of a stellar 20-
player Watch List
Jimenez, Price named starters for All-Star Game >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez
and Tampa Bay Rays lefty David Price have been selected as the starting
pitchers for the 2010 All-Star Game at Angel Stadium.
National League manager Cha
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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