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07/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The American League will try to stretch its unbeaten streak to 14 games over the National League when the respective All-Star teams battle Tuesday in the 81st edition of the Mid-Summer Classic at Angel Stadium.
This marks the first All-Star Game in Anaheim since the Big "A" played host in 1989 and the third time overall that the city has housed the event.
A pall though has been cast on the game with the news of the death of New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner.
With last year's 4-3 victory in St. Louis, the American League enters tonight's affair with seven straight wins in the All-Star Game and has not lost to the National League since 1996, collecting 12 wins during that stretch, while battling to a 7-7 tie in the 2002 game that was called after 11 innings when both squads ran out of pitchers.
The unbeaten streak for the AL is the longest in the game's history, surpassing the Senior Circuit's 11-game run from 1972-1982. The AL is actually 18-3-1 in the last 22 All-Star Games and has not lost since falling 6-0 at Philadelphia's Veterans Stadium back in 1996.
Oddly enough, though, the American League only has a three-run differential over the NL in the previous 80 contests, 339-336. However since the start of the unbeaten streak, the AL has outscored the NL, 76-48.
The American League's last four wins have all been one-run victories.
This also marks the eighth straight year that the All-Star Game will determine which league gets home-field advantage in the World Series. The AL, of course, has won the previous seven contests.
"I know it only matters for the World Series, but in our home games during the playoffs, we were 7-1, so we understand that home-field advantage is very important to our American League club this year," said AL manager Joe Girardi.
On Monday, Girardi named Tampa Bay lefty David Price as his starter for Tuesday night's Mid-Summer Classic, making the 24-year-old hurler the youngest pitcher to start the game since a 23-year-old Dwight Gooden took the ball for the National League in 1988.
"It's definitely an honor," said Price, who is the youngest AL pitcher to open this game since 23-year-old Brett Saberhagen in 1987. "It hasn't set in yet. I'm very happy to be here."
The top overall pick in the 2007 draft, Price is 12-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 100 strikeouts this season for the Rays. He is one of six pitchers all-time under 25 years of age to reach 12 wins, an ERA below 2.50 and 100 strikeouts heading into the All-Star break, and the first in 25 years since Roger Clemens did so in 1986 (15-2, 2.48 ERA, 146 strikeouts).
He is also the youngest to be leading either the AL or NL in wins and ERA at the All-Star break since 23-year-old Scott Erickson with Minnesota in 1991 (12 wins, 1.83 ERA).
The lineup for the American League will open with Seattle right fielder Ichiro Suzuki, who will be followed by New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter and Detroit first baseman Miguel Cabrera, who is replacing the injured Justin Morneau of Minnesota.
Texas center fielder Josh Hamilton will bat cleanup, with his teammate and former Angels star Vladimir Guerrero next as the designated hitter. Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria will hit sixth, followed by Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano and Rays left fielder Carl Crawford.
"You look at numbers and how guys have performed," said Girardi when asked how he constructed his lineup. "We have quality RBI guys in the middle of the lineup and speed at the top and bottom."
Philadelphia's Charlie Manuel, who will be guiding the National League for the second straight year, tabbed Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez to be his starter. Jimenez has had an incredible start to the 2010 season with a record of 15-1 and a 2.20 earned run average in 18 starts. He has already matched his victory total from last year and leads the majors in wins.
"It's a huge honor for me just to be here," said Jimenez. "I'm going to cherish the moment tomorrow. It's an honor to be in the clubhouse with all these stars."
The 26-year-old Dominican native threw the season's first no-hitter and the first in Rockies history on April 17 against Atlanta. He last pitched on Thursday against St. Louis and threw eight innings in a 4-2 victory, becoming the first National League pitcher to reach 15 wins before the All-Star break since Greg Maddux in 1988.
"He's a very talented guy," said Manuel, who indicated that Florida ace Josh Johnson was also considered. "We've got some real talented pitchers on the National League squad. He's 15-1 and his record speaks for itself."
Manuel also revealed his lineup for Tuesday's contest. Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez will lead off for the National League and will be followed by Atlanta second baseman Martin Prado, who is starting for the injured Chase Utley of Philadelphia. St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols will bat third, followed by Philadelphia's Ryan Howard, who was chosen by Manuel as the designated hitter.
New York Mets third baseman David Wright will hit fifth, followed by Milwaukee left fielder Ryan Braun, Dodgers center fielder Andre Ethier and Brewers' right fielder Corey Hart, who is starting in place of injured Atlanta rookie Jason Heyward. Yadier Molina of St. Louis will catch and bat ninth.
Next year's All-Star Game will be contested at Chase Field in Arizona.
<< Report: Steinbrenner suffers heart attack
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner has
reportedly suffered a heart attack.
According to the Tampa Tribune, emergency crews responded to Steinbrenner's
home late Monday night and took him to a hospit
<< Twins stagger into All-Star break in 3rd place
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -With a payroll swelling to nearly $100 million and a spectacular new open-air ballpark, this was supposed to be the season the Minnesota Twins took hold of the AL Central from the start and challenged the New York Yankees for the A
<< AP source: Yankees' George Steinbrenner dies at 80
NEW YORK (AP) -A person close to George Steinbrenner tells The Associated Press that the New York Yankees' owner died Tuesday morning.The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the team had not yet made the announcement.Copyright © 2005
<< NL All-Star Expanded Statistics
BATTERS AVG OBA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS ECatcherMolina, StL .223 .301 265 17 59 10 0 3 33 26 30 6 3 4First BasePujols, StL .308 .416 321 55 99 21 1 21 64 60 44
Taylor pleads not guilty to rape charges >>
New City, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hall of Fame linebacker Lawrence Taylor has
pleaded not guilty to rape charges that were brought against him this past
May.
He pleaded not guilty at a Rockland County courthouse on Tuesday as he was
Steinbrenner's death casts pall over All-Star festivities >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If there was ever a baseball story that could steal the
spotlight from the All-Star Game, this was it.
George Steinbrenner passed away early Tuesday morning following a massive
heart
attack in his Tampa home. The longtime
AL West: Lee deal shakes up AL West >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We know this much is true about the Texas Rangers: on
paper, they are a better ballclub than they were before Friday.
When the Rangers traded for Seattle Mariners' ace Cliff Lee, they effectively
complemented their potent
Habs sign Lapierre, two others >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens signed forward Maxim
Lapierre to a one-year contract on Tuesday, and also signed defenseman Mathieu
Carle and forward J.T. Wyman to one-year, two-way contracts.
Lapierre finished his
It’s time to see how the biggest NFL free agent signings will perform for their news teams. Some will work out and could be the difference that makes a difference in the win column.
We look at the best off-season signings and if they should influence your NFL betting this season. Julius Peppers – Peppers was the biggest prize available on the 2010 NFL free agent market and the Chicago Bears opened the bank to bring his talents to the south side.
Peppers is explosive, he can get around blockers and cause quarterbacks to lose their minds. We all remember the classic Peppers game last year against the Vikings where he hounded Brett Favre into his worst game of the season. Peppers joining the Bears could be the reason Favre retired for good Tuesday morning. In addition to Peppers, the Bears added Chester Taylor to back up Matt Forte, Forte didn’t have the same intensity in 2009 compared to 2008 and bringing in Taylor will challenge Forte to bring it every game or he’ll risk losing carries to Taylor.
Betting on the Bears is a good option this season because of Julius Peppers and to a lesser extent Taylor. Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens – The Cincinnati Bengals signed two former number one wide receivers to line up with Chad Ocho Cinco. Antonio Bryant had a huge season in 2008 catching 83 passes for over 1200 yards but regressed last season. Playing for the Tampa Bay Bucs last season was a large part of the regression, everyone was bad in TB last season.
Bryant should have a bounce back season if he can win the number two spot from Terrell Owens. If Bryant wins the number 2 WR spot, it will open up a completely new set of problems for the Bengals. If Owens is forced to the bench in favor of Bryant, his attitude will create trouble for Carson Palmer and head coach Marv Lewis. If Owens is the number two receiver, it means Bryant can’t live up to his past numbers and the Bengals are still limited in the passing game. NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. 2010 football betting lines for this can be found at this top online sportsbook. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense.
NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense. They signed away the Arizona Cardinals top linebacker Karlos Danby. In the past two seasons, Danby has totaled 228 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles. The Dolphins are the forgotten team of the AFC East with the second longest odds to win the division but with the addition of Karlos Danby and a trade for WR Brandon Marshall makes the Miami Dolphins legitimate contenders in the AFC East and in the NFL’s Eastern Conference.
The Dolphins will make NFL wagering fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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