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05/12/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will take on 11 challengers in Saturday's $1 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The 1 3/16-mile race is the second jewel in racing's Triple Crown.
Unlike the Kentucky Derby when poor weather affected the race, the Preakness should be held on a fast track. A few thunderstorms are forecast for Friday, but Saturday will be dry with partly cloudy skies and a post-time temperature near 75.
Post-time for Saturday's Preakness is 6:10 p.m.(et).
Owned by WinStar Farm, Super Saver is the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 12- horse field. The three-year-old colt will start from post eight with Calvin Borel again in the saddle.
Borel goes after his second consecutive Preakness victory on Saturday, having won last year's race with the filly Rachel Alexandra. Borel has won three of the last four Triple Crown races on three different horses. He won the 2009 Kentucky Derby on Mind That Bird.
Super Saver gave his trainer Todd Pletcher his first Kentucky Derby win after failing with 24 previous horses. Pletcher is justifiably excited about his current champion.
"I think he's got a big chance to win at Pimlico," Pletcher said recently. "So we're going to tackle that assignment and then we've got three weeks 'til the next one. I think coming into the Derby it appeared to be a very wide open group and I think it's still a little bit wide open. But I wouldn't trade places with anyone, especially going to Pimlico and backing up a little bit of distance."
Pletcher, who is looking for his first Preakness win, believes Super Saver's tactical speed is the horse's biggest advantage.
"I think he's got a tactical edge because he's not relying on the trip like many of the rest of them," Pletcher noted. "If it's a slow pace he'll be there. If it's a fast pace he can settle like he did the other day. Something that was overlooked in the Derby is that everyone made it out to be that this horse didn't get a great trip and that horse didn't get a good trip. Super Saver was able to get a great trip because he was able to put himself in all the right spots and every time Calvin needed him to do something, he did it."
The colt is the winner of three of seven career starts and has lifetime earnings of more than $1.8 million.
This year Super Saver was third to Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby behind Line of David. In 2009 he was fourth to Homeboykris in the Champagne, but came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Pletcher will also send out Derby Trial runner-up Aikenite in the race.
Aikenite is owned by Dogwood Stable and will be ridden by Javier Castellano from post one. The colt, 20-1 in the program, was second to Hurricane Ike in the Derby Trial on April 24 at Churchill Downs.
Aikenite has just one win in eight career starts for $300,806 in earnings. This year he was sixth in the Holy Bull Stakes, but came back to finish third in the Fountain of Youth. His eighth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes knocked him out of consideration for the Kentucky Derby.
Here is the complete field for the Preakness in post position order: Aikenite, 20-1, Javier Castellano; Schoolyard Dreams, 15-1, Eibar Coa; Pleasant Prince, 20-1, Julien Leparoux; Northern Giant, 30-1, Terry Thompson; Yawanna Twist, 30-1, Edgar Prado; Jackson Bend, 12-1, Mike Smith; Lookin At Lucky, 3-1, Martin Garcia; Super Saver, 5-2, Calvin Borel; Caracortado, 10-1, Paul Atkinson; Paddy O'Prado, 9-2, Kent Desormeaux; First Dude, 20-1, Ramon Dominguez and Dublin, 10-1, Garrett Gomez.
All starters will carry 126 pounds.
The Triple Crown will conclude on Saturday, June 5 at Belmont Park with the running of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes.
Affirmed in 1978 was the last thoroughbred to sweep the Triple Crown races.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.
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